Results of the survey of the population of Azerbaijan
Demographic characteristics
Age and gender
Among the surveyed population, 54.4% are men, and 45.6% are women. However, these numbers significantly
differ in different regions. Thus, in general, the relation of gender is equal in cities. In the capital
there were even more interviewed women than men: 54.4% versus 45.6 %. Nevertheless, in the province the
male respondents prevail: 63.4% versus 36.6% of interviewed women. The number of female respondents was
the least in the Apsheron peninsula. This is mainly explained by the traditional life style in the peninsula,
and little activeness of women there in public-political life of the country.
Regarding the age of respondents, we can see that the majority of them (63.2%) are the most active
and working part of the society. At the same time, there is a big number of respondents up to 25 years
old (24.8%), which is understandable (for the survey it was important to learn opinion of those who determines
the climate in the society today and those who will do it tomorrow).
Analysis of the age of the respondents according to regions the survey was conducted demonstrates
that the middle and young age are more represented in Baku, Gyanja, and Apsheron, and representatives
of elder age in the Southern and Central regions of the republic.
Education
The prevailing majority (70.9%) of the respondents have high level of education. Respondents with
higher education are 51.5%, and 19.4% of respondents have incomplete higher education. Only 1.1% of respondent
do not have any education.
However, it should be mentioned that there is a big difference in the level of education of respondents
in different regions. It is reasonable that 73.4% of interviewees in the capital city have higher and
incomplete higher education, while this indicator in the provinces is much less: about 54% with higher
education and 59% with incomplete higher education.
Social position
Social position of the respondents, in general, reflects the current situation of the population.
Among the interviewees there are representatives of executive power bodies (2.8%), and people working
in the industry (2.9%) construction (4.0%), trade and service (9.8%). However, the most represented layer
of the society was people working in science and education, as well as students and journalists (43.0%).
Mainly, this happened because of the research topic, as the most educated layers of the society are interested
in the problems of relations with Armenians and the surrounding world. This is also the layer, where
many stereotypes and prejudices are formed.
At the same time, notwithstanding the very high educational level in general, not all the respondents
have secured income. The main part is pensioners and housewives (9.5%), students (15.6%), jobless (11.7%),
or middle level workers (34.9%) with low level of income. Only 5.6% hold managerial positions, and 3,9%
are businessmen working in the private sector.
Material conditions
In regards to material living conditions the respondents can be divided into two approximately equal
parts- those who considered themselves as well-being (9.8%) or who, in general were satisfied with their
material conditions (43.6%) and those who considered themselves as poor (35.5%) and very poor (10.7%).
If to look at this picture by regions, then we can see that respondents living in big cities, and particularly,
Baku and Gyanja, where are jobs, are in the best situation. In villages, the situation is much worse
and because of this, for example, 57% of inhabitants of towns in Apsheron considered themselves as poor
and very poor. However, the most unsatisfied with their material conditions were dwellers of Sheki- 63%
of respondents.
2. Azerbaijan and the surrounding world
At the beginning, respondents should define the level of relevance of their expectations to their
real living conditions. It appeared that only 6% live better than they expected, and 25.9% live the way
they expected. Many more respondents (68.1%) were pessimists, whose living conditions did not match their
expectations. The situation, of course differs in different regions. The best situation is, also it is
strange to see, in the central region-Sahatly and Sabirabad regions, where only 55% respondent were disappointed
with the reality versus 45% who were satisfied with their situation. In the capital city, 7.2% mentioned
that the reality did match or even exceeded their expectations and 25.6% mentioned that their life occurred
the way they expected. Nevertheless, the percentage of dissatisfied and disappointed in the capital city
was also high - 67.2%. However, the most disappointed among the respondents were interviewees in Sheki
(88%) and Apsheron (75%).
Prioritized values
Then, the respondents had to define three values which they prioritize in descending by its importance
order. It appeared that today people in Azerbaijan are more concerned with their health (74.1%), family
(51.2%) and the peace (23.8%). After it, approximately with the same outcome (17-18%) such values as
independence, education, prosperity and justice were indicated by the respondents. However, the traditional,
especially for the Caucasus , values, including friendship, respect for elders, tolerance and decency,
seemed to the contemporary inhabitants of Azerbaijan less important.
In the regional perspective, the picture is different. In the capital city the respondents outlined
health (79.2%), family (59.2%) and prosperity (24.0%). In Gyanja, Sheki and the central region- health,
family and peace were prioritized, and in the south- health, family and prosperity. Somewhat different
was opinion of the inhabitants of Apsheron: here people mentioned at the first place health (52%), family
(42%) and security (23%). At the same time, people living in Apsheron also mentioned such values as patriotism,
respect for elders and independence. Such values as love, decency, tolerance and education were little
appreciated by the majority of the respondents. This is noticeable especially in the analysis of answers
of the respondents from the western (Gyanja and Sheki) and the central (Sahatly and Sabirabad) regions.
Economic situation of Azerbaijan
The respondents then had to evaluate the economic situation of the country. It became clear that
there are not so many optimists among the respondents: 1.8% believed that the economy is in an excellent
shape, and 21.1% evaluated the situation of the economy as good. However, the majority (63.8%) believed
that the economic situation of the republic is hard and even catastrophic. While analyzing the results
by the regions, it can be seen that in the capital city and Apsheron the opinions coincided: 19% considered
the economic situation of the country as brilliant, and about 66% were categorically against such assertion.
The greatest number of optimists about the economic situation in Azerbaijan were from the central region,
among the Turks Meskhets- 68%, and the least number was in the west (in Sheki) and in the south, where
the numbers were 5% and 10% accordingly, and where 87% and 88% believed that the country is in the hardest
situation. This variety in opinions is mainly connected with the fact that for Turks Meskhets, deported
during the Stalin time from the Central Asia, the most important thing is the problem of personal security
and the question of the soonest return to the historical motherland-Georgia. At the same time, being
traditionally village dwellers, they could settle their life in regions and thus were not strongly dependant
on politics of the country leadership.
The biggest threat to Azerbaijan
In opinion of the residents of Azerbaijan , the biggest threats to the security of Azerbaijan are
three main factors: not settled issue of the Karabakh conflict (76.1%), corruption (75.9%) and economic
problems (60.6%). After it, with a great gap, follow political instability in the country (22.8%), geopolitical
struggle in the region (16.2%) and lack of tolerance in the society (16.0%). In contrary to expectations,
the activities of religious organizations of foreign origin were not considered by the respondents as
a serious threat for the security of Azerbaijan .
Answers in different regions in general overlapped. The difference was only in the order of importance
of the mentioned three factors. In Baku , Apsheron and Sheki, the respondents considered corruption as
the main threat, then- the unsettlement of the Karabakh conflict, and after it economic problems. In
Gyanja, and the central and southern regions, in the first place it was unsettlement of the Karabakh
conflict, in the second- corruption, and in the third- economic problems. It is interesting to note,
that in the capital city and nearby towns of the Apsheron peninsula, the next threat was political instability
of the country, while people in province did not worry about this.
In the answers of respondents, additional reasons were also mentioned such as authoritarianism of
the powers, problem of regionalism and kinship, and activities of Armenians in the world.
Friends and enemies of Azerbaijan
The survey expectedly demonstrated that in the list of friendly countries the first place (with a
great leap) was given to Turkey , for which in total 88.4 % voted. Georgia received twice less than Turkey
votes (41.7 %), although leaving behind Russia , for which 27.1% of respondents voted. However, Russia
was mentioned in the first place more often than Georgia , although in total number of answers it received
the third place. However, the fact that Russia is in the three most friendly to Azerbaijan countries,
is remarkable. After this, in the list of the friendly countries were Germany (26.9 %), USA (25.7 %)
and CIS (21.2 %). Notwithstanding all expectations, Iran was in between of the Great Britain and France
. It is surprising that four respondent (0.4%) mentioned Armenia in the list of the friendly countries.
There are differences in answers in different regions. Being univocal in respect to Turkey , the
respondents' opinions regarding the other countries varied. In Baku, the majority of respondents considered
as friendly countries, first of all, Russia and Georgia (which receive the same amount of votes), after
which the USA and Germany followed. Approximately the same opinion was held by the respondents of the
Apsheron peninsula. Nevertheless, in the west of the country, in Gyanja and Sheki , Russia was not that
popular, and in the list of five first countries, friendly to Azerbaijan , were Turkey , Georgia , Germany
, USA and Russia . In the south of the country the leading countries were Turkey , Georgia , Germany
, Russia and the USA . In addition, Iran received the most votes there.
Finally, Armenia as a friendly country was indicated by inhabitants of Apsheron, as well as in Sheki
and in the south-Lenkoran and Sahatly regions.
Then, the respondents were suggested to answer the question which countries are not friendly towards
Azerbaijan . As it was expected, in the first place (with a great leap) was Armenia (93.4 %). After it
was Iran (61.8 %). On the third and the fourth places were Russia (36.4 %) and France (33.2 %). The list
was followed by the USA (15.1 %), and then far below were such countries as the Great Britain , Germany
, Holland and even strategic partners Georgia and Turkey !
The picture by regions practically coincides with the results of the nation-wide survey. The only
difference is that Russia , USA and France , taking from the third to the fifth places in the list change
their places in different regions. In addition, in the southern part of the country, Iran as not-friendly
country received many more votes than in the west of the country and in the capital city.
Nevertheless, while indicating countries as friendly or not friendly to Azerbaijan , respondents
based their answers on their political perception of these countries. Especially it is obvious while
analyzing answers of respondents to the question on the countries in which Azerbaijan is interested for
economic cooperation. Here we see that respondents do not clearly correlate friendly and beneficial for
economic cooperation countries. The respondents are convinced that Azerbaijan should develop cooperation,
first of all, with Turkey (74.5 %), then with Russia (64.6 %) and USA (55.8 %). In addition, in this
list, the USA was at the first place in the majority of answers. In any case, it is clear that these
three countries dominate with a great leap and these countries are considered as the most necessary economic
partners for Azerbaijan .
Then, much lower are CIS, Germany , Georgia , Great Britain , and Iran . It is remarkable, that again
four respondents mentioned Armenia as the country with which Azerbaijan should develop economic cooperation.
The picture varies in different regions. In Baku , Russia was the most often mentioned in the first
places of the list and in total answers. The second and third places were shared by the USA and Turkey
. The USA more often was mentioned in the first place, and Turkey received more places in total. In the
end of the list of five leaders are CIS and Georgia. However, in the south, Iran was listed among the
first five countries, with which Azerbaijan should cooperate in the sphere of economy. In the west (Sheki
and Gyanja) the sympathy towards Turkey , USA and Germany is obvious. Here the list is concluded by Russia
and CIS.
To finally determine the attitude of the respondents, they were suggested to mention the countries,
military cooperation with which meets national interests of Azerbaijan . It appeared, that here respondents
based their answers not on economic priorities, but on military-political reasons. Again, the first place,
with a great leap, was given to Turkey (82.6 %). The second place was firmly held by the USA (61.6 %),
although they were only in the last place in the list of friendly countries. Then Russia followed (48.0
%), which was not expected, taking into account publications in the mass media of the country. The following
places were given to Germany (20.5 %) and Georgia (17.2 %), which is reasonable, as they were considered
as friendly to Azerbaijan countries. However, the most surprising answers were those which mentioned
Iran (7.1 %) and even Armenia (0.5 %) as countries, military cooperation with which meet national interests
of Azerbaijan. The Great Britain , which has significant economic interests in Azerbaijan and take an
active role in development of local oil, appeared beyond all countries, even France , passing ahead only
Armenia !
The answers of respondents in regions practically coincided, and the leading places were held by
Turkey , USA and Russia . Only in Baku , the USA was at the first place, Russia at the second, and Turkey
was the least among the three leaders. However, it is clear that opinions of respondents are not finally
formed and were divided between supporters of the Western and Russian orientation.
The following question suggested that respondents express their attitude and feelings towards concrete
countries, with which Azerbaijan has borders or definite relationship. Here it appeared that the Azerbaijani
respondents feel respect, love, envy, as well as indifference and pity towards Georgia , Turkey , USA
and countries of the Western Europe . This demonstrates that in evaluation of Azerbaijani respondents
towards these countries positive feelings prevailed. Even envy had a positive context and was connected
with processes, which took place in these countries and not in Azerbaijan .
Answers in different regions almost completely coincided, and in all regions, respect towards the
above mentioned countries was in the first place. The following places somewhat varied. Thus, towards
Georgia , USA and Western Europe in the capital and the south of the country sometimes negative feelings,
such as fear, shame, anger and contempt, prevailed. In the central and western parts of the country,
positive characteristics prevailed. It is noticeable that there is a difference in answers of respondents
if categorized by age and gender. Thus, the youth, and especially in the capital and the western region
had a great sympathy (and even added other characteristics, including admiration, freedom, human rights)
towards USA and countries of the Western Europe . The elder generation was more cautious in their feelings.
It is surprising that men had more sympathy and admiration towards the USA and Western European countries
than women.
The difference is seen in respondents' feelings towards other countries. This, respondents' feelings
towards Russia were, first of all, respect (52.6%), envy (23.9%), love (22.3%), anger (20.4%) and indifference
(20.3%). Then, obviously negative characteristics were mentioned, including fear, pity, hatred and shame.
Nevertheless, in their majority, Azerbaijani had much better attitude towards Russia than it could be
expected, taking into account the history of Azerbaijan in the last 16 years after the start of Nagorno
Karabakh conflict.
In regions, the difference in attitude towards Russia is more significant. The western regions (Sheki
and Gyanja) in general have a negative attitude towards Russia , although respect it. In the capital
city and in the South, Lenkoran region and in Apsheron, sympathy to Russia prevails (mostly, it is respect,
love and envy).
In Azerbaijan , the attitude towards Iran is, clearly, not the best. Here the first three places
were given to contempt (38.7%), anger (35.3%) and indifference (34.8%). Although after it some other
feelings such as respect and love also appear, but still among hatred, shame, pity and fear. Answers
by regions demonstrate that Iran received positive characteristics in the south and Apsheron peninsula,
although here negative feelings- hatred, anger, contempt also are mentioned. In Baku , positive and negative
opinions were divided into equal parts, while in the western and central regions of the country respondents
have mainly negative feelings (anger, contempt, shame) towards Iran .
Self-evaluation (auto-stereotypes)
In the light of the abovementioned, it was very important to learn what qualities the respondents
consider as the most typical for the Azerbaijani people. In other words, there was a task to learn the
people's self-evaluation. It appeared that in general the population outlines positive features, and
in the first place, hospitality (57.9%), kindness (31.7%), tolerance (30.8%), peacefulness (30.8%) and
diligence (26.3%). In the following places there also were negative features (laziness, narcissism, hypocrisy,
impudence and stinginess), but positive attitude still prevails. It is indicative that for the country,
which is in the state of war and lost significant part of its land, and where is a great army of refugees
and forced internal immigrants, such a feature as militancy was mentioned in the last place among all
listed characteristics, receiving only 2.7% votes. Moreover, Azerbaijani people do not consider themselves
as aggressive and only two respondents mentioned this feature as typical for their people.
In general, this evaluation does not differ in regions. In all regions, respondents, first of all,
mention such typical, in their opinion, features for the Azerbaijani people as hospitality, peacefulness,
kindness, diligence and tolerance. Somewhat more self-critical were respondents in the capital and the
south of the country, which also indicated laziness and narcissism. Residents of the western and central
regions appeared as the most patriotic and militant and added such qualities as patriotism and militancy
but only after listing the first five "commonly Azerbaijani" features.
Attitude towards Armenians and Armenia
The last 16 years in the life of Azerbaijani people, Armenians have played not an insignificant role,
and because of this one of the main goals of this project was an attempt to receive information on attitude
of the Azerbaijani people towards Armenians and Armenia . The Azerbaijani respondents were suggested
to evaluate the economic situation of Armenia in comparison to Azerbaijan . It appeared that 9.8 % of
respondents, i.e. every tenth, are sure that economic situation in Armenia is better than in Azerbaijan
. However, the majority (41.1%) are sure in the opposite. 15.8% believe that economic situation is the
same in both countries.
Difference in opinions among regions is significant. The highest scores the Armenian economy received
in the Apsheron (24%, and 11% there believed that there is no difference in economic position of both
republics) and in Sheki (15% scored economic situation of Armenia higher, and 25% placed the situation
on the same level in both republics). In the south of the country, people are not sure that economic
position in Azerbaijan is better than in Armenia . In the capital and Gyanja respondents believe that
economy of Armenia in comparison to Azerbaijan is in a worse condition. However, the most radical opinions
are held by the respondents of the Central region, along the front line: here only 5% believe that economic
position of Armenia is better, and 71% do not agree with this opinion.
Respondents were offered to reveal their attitude towards Armenians and Armenia dominated . Here
such features as contempt (85.1%), anger (76.9%) and hatred (41.6%). The first five feelings of Azerbaijani
towards Armenians and Armenia are concluded by the shame (14.9%) and indifference (14.6%). In other words,
in the mentality of Azerbaijani people obviously negative attitudes towards Armenians and Armenia prevail.
It is remarkable, that the younger the respondents, the more negative associations are connected with
Armenians and Armenia , while the elder generation is more cautious in choosing expressions for their
feelings. The difference in perception of the generations among the Azerbaijani people is especially
obvious in evaluation of the following characteristics. Thus, the following places were held by envy,
fear, guiltiness, pity and even respect and love! The last evaluations are very rear, but they come across,
too. However, this assessment of their feelings towards Armenia and Armenians was given by the elder
generation more often than by the young generation of Azerbaijan .
The picture in regions is the same in general. The first four places were occupied by such feelings
as anger, contempt, hatred and shame. On the fifth place, respondents mentioned various feelings. In
the south, center and west of the country the fear was mentioned. In the capital city indifference followed
the expression of negative feelings. Only in Apsheron we received an unexpected result: here the first
five feelings are concluded by the feeling of guiltiness before Armenians!
Then, the respondents had to define the most characteristic features for Armenians. Here we observe
dominance of negative features. In opinion of residents of Azerbaijan , common features for Armenians
are cunningness (65.7%), nationalism (42.2%), hypocrisy (39.4%), impudence (33.3%) and aggressiveness
(22.8%). The other features following these are also not the best- craftiness, malice, militancy, narcissism
and other. At the same time, the respondents mentioned, although not among the main qualities, positive
features of Armenians, such as diligence, entrepreneurship, intellect, patriotism, modesty, bravery,
and talent. Especially unexpected were such features as kindness, tolerance, peacefulness and humanism.
In fact, there was very answers of this kind, but considering the consequences of the Karabakh conflict,
it should be mentioned that all these positive features were mentioned by the representatives of elder
generation of Azerbaijani, while the young people did not share these opinions.
The characteristics of the most important features of Armenians are not much different in various
regions. All respondents univocally outline as the main features of Armenians cunningness, nationalism,
impudence and hypocrisy, as well as aggressiveness and craftiness. Undoubtedly, the total dominance of
negative features of Armenian in the eyes of Azerbaijani people can be observed. The positive features,
which were occasionally mentioned by respondents, differ in regions. Thus, in the capital city diligence,
intellect and hospitality of Armenians were indicated. Respondents in the other regions mentioned militancy,
intellect and bravery of Armenians
Then the respondents were offered to define whether in Azerbaijan there are forces, which have positive
attitude towards Armenia . It appeared that opinions of the respondents divided almost into two equal
parts. 27.9% were sure that there are such forces, and 29.8% did not agree with this opinion. 41,8% had
difficulties in answering this question. The results of the analysis of answers by regions show that
the voices in Baku and Gyanja were almost equally divided. In opposite to this, in Sheki and, especially,
in the south of the country-Lenkoran zone, correspondingly, 38% have no doubts and 42% agree with this
statement. In the central region, on the front line, only 14% agreed with this opinion and 58% refused
to believe in this opinion. It is remarkable that sometimes respondents added their answers with concrete
remarks. It became clear that respondents were considering as pro-Armenian forces those who are born
in mixed marriages, and particularly, whose one of the two parents is Armenian, or anyone who had "a
suspicious origin". In the questionnaires Russians were indicated as potential supporters of Armenians.
In other words, the ethnical factor prevailed in this question. At the same time, under the influence
of the long-time propaganda respondents indicated as friends and supporters of Armenia human rights defenders
and even mentioned names of individuals (Eldar Zeynalov, etc.) and NGOs. However, this was an opinion
of the supporters of the government, but those tuned towards opposition (and especially in Baku, Sheki
and Apsheron) indicated as pro-Armenian forces the current authorities and close to the powers businessmen.
(These details became known to the interviewers as a result of their additional conversation with the
respondents).
The respondents were offered to express their opinion on whether there are forces in Armenia , which
have positive attitude towards Azerbaijan . Only 7.5% of the respondents believe that there are such
forces, while almost the half of the interviewed (45.6%) does not agree with this opinion, and almost
the similar number of people (46.0%) found it difficult to answer. In the regions, there was a complete
unanimity on this question: in average, 6-9% of the respondents were sure that in Armenia there are pro-Azerbaijani
forces, while 40-70% did not agree with this. It is interesting that the respondents also indicated on
type of people in Armenia who can be supporters of Azerbaijan- these are, first of all, "those who
thinks about future of Armenians" and "those who lived well in Azerbaijan before", and
as strange it may seem, the current powers of Armenia are also associated by Azerbaijani people as pro-Azerbaijani
forces.
Somehow or other, but the comparison of these two answers demonstrated that the Azerbaijani respondents
are sure that in Azerbaijan there are more forces sympathizing Armenia than in Armenia forces sympathizing
Azerbaijan.
Naturally, it was interesting to learn on the type of feelings caused by the information about Armenia
. The first five feelings included anger (62.5%), worry (44.7%), interest (32.3%), pity (25.3%) and indifference
(17.7%). Then, shame, irritation, disgust and dislike were mentioned in a descending order. Nevertheless,
here the evaluation of respondents should be undertaken with differentiation. On the one side, information
about Armenia does not raise positive emotions among Azerbaijani respondents. On the other hand, the
respondents clearly want to receive information on situation in Armenia, they are interested in it, and
it is not occasional that "interest" concluded the first three answers, and it was the second
most frequently mentioned feelings (after anger).
The situation in regions does not much differ, repeating the results received in the republic in
general. It can be only mentioned that the most interest towards information on Armenia was expressed
by the respondents in Baku and in the south of the country, and the least interest had people living
along the front line and in Gyanja.
The Karabakh conflict
The main influence on the current level of Armenian-Azerbaijan relationship was made by the Karabakh
conflict, which lasts already for 16 years. In the previous questions, respondents providing answers,
also considered this factor. However, it was decided that a significant bloc of questions would be more
concretely connected to this conflict.
Regarding the question, which countries or international organizations support Azerbaijan in the
Karabakh conflict, the picture on sympathies of Azerbaijani respondents does not cause any surprise.
The undoubted leader is Turkey (78,2%), which is not surprising, taking into account that from the beginning
of the Karabakh conflict this country has provided moral, material and diplomatic assistance to Azerbaijan.
After Turkey were Georgia (15.2%), the Council of Europe (14.7%), Germany (11.7%) and the UN (10.5%).
The next group was composed of the USA (8.3%), the Minsk Group of OSCE (5.6%) and CIS countries (4.0%).
It is interesting to mention that a very few votes were given to the US , and the Great Britain came
to grief, receiving only 1.2% of votes. Iran was the country, which received the least number of votes
(0.1%).
At the same time, in the answers some new tendencies appeared. On the one hand, it is noticeable
(especially, in comparison to other numerous sociological surveys, which were conducted in both countries
on the Karabakh conflict), that the number of people, who do not believe in existence of outside forces
supporting Azerbaijan , increased. Currently, almost 13% of respondents answered the question this way.
Also, some respondents started to hope for support of the Azerbaijani position from other countries,
and first of all, Pakistan (2.8%), Ukraine (1.1%) and even Israel (0.5%).
The picture is not much different in various regions. Turkey has a stable high prestige, and the
order of the countries and organizations in the list also is kept the same. It is only noticeable that
disappointment in Baku and the south of the country towards the US and the Western countries sustains,
and the rating of Russia , CIS and Iran (5-7%) slightly increased. In the west of the country- in Sheki
and Gyanja- in opposite, trust in the US is higher (12.0%) than in average in the republic.
Inclusion of the question on the possibility of victory of Azerbaijan in case of resumption of the
war is connected with the fact that recently an option of the war resumption as a possibility for resolution
of the Karabakh conflict is mentioned more intensively and often than before. It appeared that 16.9%
of the respondents evaluated the possibilities for the victory of Azerbaijan as low. In other words,
they did not believe in possibility of the resolution of the conflict by military means. In addition
to them, 22.1% of the respondents had difficulty in answering this question. Thus, 39% of the respondents
doubted the success of Azerbaijan in case if the war restarts.
However, the number of those who believed in the success is significantly higher: 35.9% practically
do not have any doubts about this and 24.7% consider this option as possible. Thus, 60.6%, i.e. more
than the half of respondents appeared to be optimists. In comparison of these data with the results of
sociological surveys conducted in Azerbaijan during last 3-4 years, the increase of the number of residents
of the country, who believe in the success of Azerbaijan is obvious.
The analysis of the results by regions demonstrates that the most believers in the successful operations
of the Azerbaijani army are in the Apsheron peninsula (84%) and in the center of the country, along the
front line (76%) and in the south (66%), the area of Lenkoran. In the west, the number of optimists is
smaller. However, it is around 60%. The most pessimists are the residents of the capital city, where
only 51% of the respondents believe in the success of the military forces of Azerbaijan .
The respondents were also offered to answer the question on perspectives of the Armenian forces in
the case of resumption of military actions . It occurred that 49.9% of Azerbaijani respondents, i.e.
the half of them, evaluated the possibility of victory of Armenia as very low. 13.5% of the respondents
believe that this option is possible, and 7.1% of the respondents consider chances of Armenia as high.
The rest of the respondents- 29.3%- found this question difficult to answer.
In the regions the picture was following. The majority of people who do not believe in success of
Armenia are in the Apsheron peninsula (77%), in the center of the country (67%). In the capital city
people, who could not find answer to this question, were in majority, which demonstrates the hesitation
of the respondents in Baku .
The respondents were requested to indicate factors, which prevent resolution of the Karabakh conflict.
In opinion of the Azerbaijani part, the obstacles for the settlement of the conflict are, first of all,
the historical hostility (48.5%), hatred of Armenians towards Azerbaijanis (41.3%) and rigid position
of the Armenian side during the negotiation process. Then, in opinion of the respondents, the solution
of the conflict is hindered by some forces in Armenia (36.8%), incompatible requirements of the conflict
parties (33.6%) and regional contradictions (25.8%). On other words, in opinion of the Azerbaijani side,
the main reason, and correspondingly, guilt for lack of settlement of the conflict lies on the Armenian
side. The thesis on regional contradictions appears only on the sixth place. This is surprising enough
as in Azerbaijan many politicians often assert that it would be much easier to settle the conflict if
there is no confrontation between USA and Russia and Turkey and Iran . It appeared that in opinion of
the respondents, this is not the main reason for the lack of settlement of the conflict.
On the other hand, only after all this, the Azerbaijani respondents decided to be self-critical and
indicated as reasons also such factors as individual forces in Azerbaijan (15.3%), hatred of Azerbaijanis
towards Armenians (8.5%) and rigidness of the Azerbaijani position during the negotiation process (3.0%).
The picture by regions was a complete reflection of the nationwide results. It should be noted that
the respondents were giving other reasons in additions to the mentioned ones. In general, they were connected
with the contradictions between the USA and Russia , as well as connected to the character of Armenians
(nationalism, aggressiveness).
Naturally, it was interesting to learn whether the information on the Karabakh conflict satisfies
the respondents and seems objective to them. Only 19.2% of the respondents believe that there is sufficient
information provided on the Karabakh conflict, and 2.3% believe that information provided is plentiful.
In other words, 21.5% of the respondents are satisfied with the amount of information on the Karabakh
conflict. Nevertheless, the majority (64.7%) does not agree with this. In addition, 49.6% of the respondents
consider the provided information as not objective and only 11.1% are satisfied with the level and quality
of the information on the Karabakh conflict. In other words, the majority of respondents are not satisfied
with either the amount or the quality of information on the Karabakh conflict.
The picture by regions is following: in the west of the country (Gyanja and Sheki), and in the center-Sabirabad
and Sahatly regions-, as well as in the south, there are more respondents who agree with the amount of
provided information on the Karabakh conflict (25-28%). People in Baku and Apsheron do not agree with
this opinion. Approximately the same picture is in respect to objectiveness of the provided information.
In the end of the survey the respondents had to indicate sources of information about the Karabakh
conflict and Armenia (Table 11). It appeared that television and radio of the republic have leading positions
(64.9%). It is mainly explained by the fact that the majority of residents of Azerbaijan cannot afford
themselves buying newspapers and journals, and thereby television and radio are the main source of information
on the Karabakh conflict and on Armenia.
Then, the most radical opposition newspaper Yeni Musavat (25.6%) follows and newspapers that were
not mentioned in this questionnaire (i.e. many regional newspapers). The list of the first five sources
of information is concluded by the Russian television and radio (19.5%) and Internet (18%). This is surprising
and demonstrates the significance of the role that Russian electronic mass media play in Azerbaijan .
If these data are complemented by the fact that 9.3% of the respondents take information about the Karabakh
conflict and Armenia from the Russian press, it occurs that Russia received 29% of votes and on this
indicator it firmly takes the second place. In other words, every third resident of Azerbaijan receives
information from Russia.
Answers to this question demonstrated, how little people trust the pro-governmental mass media (newspapers
Azerbaijan and Yeni Azerbaijan ), and also the fact that the number of respondents obtaining information
from the Internet and the Western television and mass media, significantly increased.
The answers differ by regions. In the capital city, more than 66% obtain information from television
and radio. The second place is held by the Russian television and radio (30%). Considering the Russian
press (13%) it becomes clear what a strong influence on the situation in Baku has the information about
the Karabakh conflict and Armenia received from Russia . In addition, the residents of Baku prefer the
opposition press (first of all, Yeni Musavat) and independent newspapers (Ekho and Zerkalo), as well
as Internet data. Pro-governmental mass media are not popular in the capital city.
Practically the same picture is in the south-Lenkoran area and partially in Gyanja. In the Apsheron
peninsula and Sheki city respondents preferred the opposition press, and in the first instance mentioned
information provided by the newspaper Yeni Musavat. However, in the central region, Sabirabad and Sahatly
regions, information on the Karabakh conflict and Armenia residents receive from the Azerbaijani television
and radio and pro-governmental newspapers.
Conclusions
- The survey demonstrated that significant changes occurred in the mentality of ordinary residents
of Azerbaijan after the Nagorno Karabakh conflict and the collapse of the USSR. Mostly, pessimistic
approaches increased in the country. It is not occasional that majority of the respondents are dissatisfied
with changes in social and economic life and with unrealized expectations. The majority of interviewed
people evaluate the current economic situation in Azerbaijan as being hard and even catastrophic. There
are many pessimists, particularly in the west and south of the country, as well as in the Apsheron peninsula.
According to the survey results, currently the main concerns for people of Azerbaijan are health, family,
and peace.
- At the same time, inhabitants of the republic understand that all these problems appeared as a
result of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict and the collapse of the USSR . They outline three main factors--
unsettlement of the Karabakh conflict, corruption, and economic problems--as the major threats to the
country's security. Certainly Azerbaijani respondents paid great attention to the problem of relations
with Armenia and solution of the Karabakh conflict, and these factors influenced their answers to many
questions. Thus, inhabitants of Azerbaijan considered Turkey as the friendliest country to Azerbaijan
, because Turkey continuously supported Azerbaijan during all years of the Karabakh conflict, and this
fact could not be disregarded by the respondents. For the same reason, the second place was given to
Georgia, the strategic partner of Azerbaijan in the South Caucasus . However, judging by these factors,
it seems strange that Russia and the United States hold third and fifth places, respectively, in the
rating of countries friendly to Azerbaijan . In these cases, the factor of disappointment with these
countries played a significant role. After signing the well-known "oil contracts" in September
1994, many Azerbaijanis believed that the politics of "oil in exchange for the return of Karabakh" would
be worked out with assistance of the West, primarily the US . Nevertheless, after 10 years, people in
Azerbaijan started to understand the faultiness of these expectations, and results of the survey highlighted
this disappointment. At the same time, a significant portion of the country lived and worked for many
years in Russia , and because of this, Russia may not look hostile in the eyes of many Azerbaijanis.
- Accordingly, respondents indicated Armenia , Iran , and Russia as countries being unfriendly to
Azerbaijan because of the Karabakh conflict. As seen in the results, respondents demonstrated a dual
approach in respect to Russia : on the one hand, this country is indicated as being friendly, and on
the other hand, it appears in the list of unfriendly countries.
- In their answers to questions identifying friendly and unfriendly countries, the respondents were
led by their political perception of various countries. A definite logic is observed in the analysis
of results on friendly and unfriendly countries to Azerbaijan . Thus, 151 respondents mentioned the US
as an unfriendly country to Azerbaijan . Among these respondents, only six (3%) also mentioned the US
in the list of friendly countries. Almost 30% of respondents who consider Russia as an unfriendly country
consider the US as a friendly country. At the same time, respondents sympathizing Russia and Iran also
had some sympathy towards Armenia , and some people from this group indicated Armenia as a friendly country
to Azerbaijan .
- With respect to economic cooperation a similar picture is observed. As a result, lists of friendly
and unfriendly countries do not completely coincide with the lists of countries with which Azerbaijan
must cooperate economically.
- Likewise, respondents do not connect the military power of their country with its economic situation.
This tendency appears also in comparison with the survey results on the evaluation of the economic situation
of Armenia . Thus, the majority of the respondents in Azerbaijan believe that the economic situation
of their country is hard or catastrophic. At the same time, the prevailing part of the Azerbaijani respondents
believe that economic situation in Armenia is worse than in their own country. The majority of respondents
in Azerbaijan also believe that in case of the restart of military operations, the probability of victory
of their country is undoubtedly high. At the same time, the number of respondents considering the economic
situation of their country as hard and, accordingly, the probability of victory for their country as
being low, is very low in Azerbaijan . In addition, it is distinctive that the most confident in the
victory of their country are the respondents who believe the economy is in excellent or good condition.
The number of skeptical answers increases among respondents who have a more pessimistic approach in respect
to the Azerbaijani economy.
- u According to the survey results, the Azerbaijani people consider themselves peaceful, hospitable,
and tolerant. Towards Armenians they have obvious negative feelings. In the opinions of Azerbaijani respondents,
features typical for the Armenian people are cunning, nationalism, hypocrisy, and aggressiveness. Azerbaijani
respondents mentioned also a few positive features of Armenians. The elder generation appeared more tolerant
towards Armenians than the young generation, which practically did not find any positive things in the
character of Armenians.
- The survey also demonstrated that almost every third respondent is sure that there are forces
in Azerbaijan who are positively treating Armenians and Armenia . Fewer people are confident that there
are similar forces in Armenia with positive attitudes towards Azerbaijan . Respondents considered "pro-Armenian
forces" in Azerbaijan as being people who have Armenian relatives, who were born in mixed families,
who are Russian-speaking, and who comprise national minorities. It is interesting that the ethnical factor
also played a role in determining "pro-Azerbaijani forces" in Armenia : Azerbaijani respondents
considered as "pro-Azerbaijani" those Armenians who were born in Azerbaijan and who were not
influenced by anti-Turkish propaganda in Armenia .
- In Azerbaijan, people believe that the major reasons for unsettlement of the Karabakh conflict
are historical hostility, hatred of Armenians towards Azerbaijanis, and an uncompromising position of
Armenia during peace negotiations. In other words, the Armenian side is blamed for the lack of results
in negotiations.
- Certainly, these responses are connected with the information respondents receive from the mass
media. The survey shows that information on Armenia and Armenians causes negative reactions of anger
and anxiety, then at the same time curiosity or interest, among surveyed Azerbaijanis. In the comparative
analysis of tables of the print media, it appears that readers of the oppositional newspaper "Yeni
Musavat" and independent newspapers "Zerkalo" and "Echo," as well as those who
receive information from the Russian mass media and Internet, are the most interested in information
on Armenia . The negative reaction is mainly provoked by information provided by pro-governmental mass
media (" Azerbaijan " and "Yeni Azerbaijan " newspapers) and pro-Russian press ("Novoye
Vremya"), although the negative approach is remarkably high in other mass media outlets as well.
- An analogous picture is present also in the attitude towards information provided by the Azerbaijani
mass media on the Karabakh conflict. In this case, the most radical oppositional newspaper "Yeni
Musavat" is an absolute leader in terms of quality and quantity--the majority of respondents perceive
information in this newspaper as being the most complete (even redundant) and objective. However, this
is the opinion of people, mainly the youth, who do not support the current powers of the republic. Nevertheless,
most of the older generations sympathizing with the authorities of the republic mentioned the newspaper "Yeni
Musavat" as a media outlet that provides non-objective information about the conflict. It becomes
clear that inhabitants of the republic receive information through television and radio as well as the
oppositional and independent press. The youth also tends to receive alternative information on Armenia
and the Karabakh conflict from the Internet and the western mass media.
Analysis by A. Yunusov
