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Emin Makhmudov
Deputy Editor-in-Chief of the Zerkalo daily newspaper (Azerbaijan) |
The problem of South Caucasian security and integration today
Since they gained independence, the republics of the South Caucasus have seen
the emergence of several hotbeds of interethnic conflict, mainly as a result of
the former imperial policy of Russia. Russia unscrupulously unified nations inhabiting
the region, and set the boundaries among the three main national subjects at its
own discretion, while crudely destroying the framework developed over their centuries-old
history. For example, some Georgian and Azerbaijani territories were incorporated
into Armenia, and autonomous entities were artificially created on the territories
of Georgia and Azerbaijan without any historical foundation. Thus, a time bomb
was placed in the region and it started to go off in conjunction with the weakening
of the empire - the power holding the "detonator" in its hands.
By 1992, all three republics of the South Caucasus were led by people who came
to power on the wave of interethnic conflicts.
The present situation is the logical continuation of these processes. If it
is very difficult now to talk about regional integration, it is even harder to
imagine possibilities for the creation of universal South Caucasian security.
Naturally, these two points are interdependent.
Confidence building (in the broad sense of the term) among the South Caucasian
republics is the only thing that may lead to the integration and security of the
region. This postulate, though rather generalized, must be assumed as a basis
for the settlement of regional problems.
The regionalism of the states of the South Caucasus
In the context under consideration, the regionalism of the states of the South
Caucasus is practically non-existent. At present, only the rudiments of regionalism
are appearing which, first of all, are conditioned by the implementation of international
economic projects. As is well known, by virtue of its policy and military aggression
against Azerbaijan, Armenia has practically "missed the boat", regarding
not only the so-called energy projects, in which Azerbaijan and through it Georgia
are taking part, but also the TRACECA (the Great Silk Road) and TAE (trans European-Asian
fiber-optical cable) projects.
By virtue of its political-economic situation, Russia has been unable to secure
a sound basis for the development of its former "patrimonies". A situation
has arisen in which Armenia, precisely because of its pro-Russian orientation,
has found itself cut off from the principal source of investments - the West.
The position of Azerbaijan - the main South Caucasian country in terms of potential,
which has categorically refused to cooperate with Yerevan, has also contributed
to this.
In this context, regionalism in foreign policy is being demonstrated by the
orientation of official Baku and Tbilisi toward the West. The beginning of large-scale
exploitation of the hydrocarbon resources of the Caspian basin, where the most
active role is played by Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, has made necessary the transit
of this product via Georgia. The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia has automatically
put the latter in an "off side" position. The involvement of American
companies has excluded the possibility of transportation of the hydrocarbon production
through the territory of Iran - another main partner of Armenia.
As an example of the incipient regionalism in the foreign policy of Azerbaijan
and Georgia we may cite the attitude of Azerbaijan toward the present worsening
of Russian-Georgian relations. Alarmed by the situation that has emerged in Georgia,
the leadership of Azerbaijan is actively conducting negotiations with Moscow and
Washington in an attempt to assist friendly Georgia. This is an indicator that
the regionalism in the foreign policy of Azerbaijan first of all emanates from
its economic and political interests. Only through such integration does the realization
of the necessity to create a regional security system arise. Let me repeat: unfortunately
Armenia is at present left out of the scheme of South Caucasian integration and
security.
Potentials for the development of a security system in the South Caucasus
Let us examine the four components of a common security system in the region.
First, it is necessary to settle the conflicts and to establish on this
basis a regime of mutual trust.
Apparently, this is the most difficult task to accomplish. The situation in
the region has worsened, and antagonism has become so strong that it seems impossible
to surmount this barrier in the short-term outlook. One reason is the desire of
the parties, whose ambitions have been momentarily satisfied, to maintain the
status quo at all costs. Such aspirations in Armenia, Abkhazia, Adjaria, and Ossetia
can be also explained by the fact that any leader of these territorial entities
who attempts to reject so-called "national ideas" may be left with nothing.
This was the case, for example, for the ex-president of Armenia, Levon Ter-Petrossian,
who in 1998 appraised the realities and perspectives of settling the Karabakh
conflict and attempted to make a compromise.
Further, the resolution of this problem is hindered by the geopolitical hands
dealt the same power centers in the region - the US and Russia.
Even if the opposing sides come to a common denominator, quite a long time
will be needed to establish economic links and to comprehend common interests.
Second, through the economic development of the states of the region,
it is necessary to define approximate, if not common, internal and foreign policy
guideposts. The economic development of the South Caucasus may also lead to a
higher degree of independence of the republics from "outside factors".
In my opinion, Azerbaijan and Georgia are in a more advantageous situation. However,
unlike Azerbaijan, which recently is confidently headed toward cooperation with
Russia, Georgia has more problems with Russia. In comparison with Georgia, Armenia
is from the political point of view (but never from the economic) in a relatively
better situation. Having Russia as its principal strategic partner, Armenia has
developed fairly good relations with the West. The very same military conflict
with Azerbaijan hinders Armenia from developing full-scale economic relations
with Western states. Nevertheless, a certain development of the situation in the
region, as well as some tendencies within political life, show that prospects
for rapprochement in terms of the internal and foreign political guideposts of
the states of the region still exist.
Third, the interest of the parties is necessary for the establishment
of systems to counteract the "power poles", which dictate their will
in the region. The realization of this, taking into account the state of affairs
in the republics, is also a matter of the long-term outlook. And the exit to this
path lies in the realization of the second point mentioned above-- the economic
development of the South Caucasian states.
Fourth, the interest of the "power poles" is necessary for
the establishment of the security system of the South Caucasian region. Of course,
this interest will be directed toward the achievement of their own aims, and above
of all toward the maintenance of economic interests. This issue can be resolved
through attracting foreign investments into the region.
This very aspect is one of the main potentials for the future creation of a South
Caucasian security system, when both internal and the outside forces are absolutely
interested in it.
Integration into various international security systems and organizations
Undoubtedly the participation of the states of the region in various international
organizations has a very positive impact on the situation in the region as a whole.
Membership in the UN, the OSCE, the Council of Europe, and even the CIS has a
very beneficial affect on the resolution of internal problems and promotes the
democratization of the three republics, which in the future will become a basis
for the resolution of the problems existing in their interrelations. Of course,
the participation of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia in such structures is at
this stage mainly aimed at the quest for arbitrators who might assist in solving
certain problems. For the states of the region, the UN, the OSCE, and the CoE
serve as some kind of "boxing ring" where the parties come together
to settle at least these problems. However, by now it can be asserted that membership
in these organizations is becoming a hindrance that keeps the parties from addressing
their own differences.
The reverse side of this is that when considering one or another issue related
to the region, the above-mentioned organizations often depart from the international
standards they themselves have declared. As a result, if this does not aggravate
the situation in the region as a whole, it at least impedes positive processes.
Additionally, in this case the interests of individual member-states of the international
organizations that are included in one or another "power pole" play
their own role.
Nevertheless, membership in these structures does in one way or another bring
the republics of the South Caucasus toward orientation to unified international-social
norms, which subsequently, according to the development of the three republics,
is called upon to play its exclusive role in the cause of South Caucasian integration.
Thus, at the present moment it may be asserted that:
- In the near future, there is no way to establish a common security system
and to start integration processes in the South Caucasus. Unfortunately, the region
has become a solid knot of contradictions that it will take decades of effort
to undo.
- There exists a danger of protracting the conflicts, as a result of which the
republics of the South Caucasus will develop further in diametrically opposed
directions. And the day may come when the situation in Azerbaijan and Georgia,
including their foreign policy priorities on the one hand, and those of Armenia
on the other hand, will so differ from one another that the "borderline"
running between the conflicting "power poles" of the world will be clearly
drawn in the region of the South Caucasus. And in this case the rapprochement
of the two parties, Azerbaijan-Georgia and Armenia will be conditioned by the
rapprochement of the "poles" themselves.
