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Stepan Grigoryan
Armat Center for Democracy and Civil Society Development (Armenia) |
US and Russian Interests in the South Caucasus
After the collapse of the USSR, its territories no longer constituted a common
geopolitical and geo-economic zone. Ten years of the existence of the Commonwealth
of Independent States (CIS) have shown that the interests of its members often
do not coincide. Their mutual relations have at times been so strained that they
have grown into hostile actions. The most vivid example is the recent worsening
of Russian-Georgian relations. Russia has never adduced forcible arguments in
favor of the existence of the CIS, has not assumed the role of leader of this
organization, and has not been able to offer new ideas of cooperation to CIS member-states.
Consequently, CIS member-states have oriented themselves to other states and organizations,
and different security systems, and are seeking new economic partners. There are
a multitude of examples of this: the transportation of Turkmenistani gas through
the territory of Iran; the withdrawal of Turkmenistan from the common visa zone;
the admission of Georgia, Moldova and Kyrgyzstan into the World Trade Organization,
which in fact means the break-up of the common free market zone; the consent of
Kazakhstan to transport a portion of its oil to the West bypassing Russian territory;
the quartering on the territory of some states of Central Asia (including CIS
Collective Security Treaty members Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) of military contingents
of NATO member-states in the course of the anti-terrorist operation; the establishment
on the territory of the CIS of regional organizations without Russia's participation
- GUUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Moldova), CAS -Central Asian
Cooperation (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan); formal declarations
by Ukraine and Georgia about initiating the process of joining NATO, and so forth.
Today, one may ascertain that the CIS has split into smaller and more natural
sub-regions (subsystems): the South Caucasian (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia),
the Central Asian (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan),
and the Central European (Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine).
Naturally, various countries and international organizations are attempting
to fill the vacuum that emerged as Russia has weakened. In particular, the region
of the South Caucasus is of both military- strategic and economic interest to
leading world powers (in the first place, the United States and a number of states
of the European Union) and regional powers (Turkey and Iran).
The US attitude towards the South Caucasus
At present, the configuration of the world order largely resembles a unipolar
system, in which the US and NATO play the dominant role. It is clear that the
US has interests in all relatively significant regions of the world. The South
Caucasian region is of interest to the US from the point of view of:
a) communication and transport, alternative routes of the delivery of Caspian
basin oil to the West. Here, a special role is assigned to the Baku-Ceyhan oil
pipeline, the construction of which was inaugurated on September 18, 2002. The
presidents of Turkey, Azerbaijan, Georgia, the US Secretary of Energy and other
high-ranking officials were present at the opening ceremony. The US attaches special
importance to this pipeline, since it can solve several problems, the mainly through
providing an alternative to Russia's monopolistic transportation of Caspian and
Kazakhstani oil through its territory to Europe, and the consequent opportunity
for closer cooperation among Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan.
b) the fight against terrorism. After the events of September 11, 2001 the
role of the South Caucasian region became significant for two reasons. First,
all three countries of the region reacted quite effectively to the terrorist attacks
in New York and Washington DC. Especially active here were Georgia and Azerbaijan,
who expressed readiness to militarily assist the US in its fight against international
terrorism. Second is the immediate proximity and vicinity of Iran and Iraq considered
by the US among the states of the "axis of evil". If necessary the US
could use the military bases of the states of the region for carrying out operations,
including intelligence, against the "exiled states".
c) the establishment of statehood of the South Caucasian states. The US is
interested in this and in the creation of democratic orders in all three countries
of the region. Only in this case will Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia be guided
by Western values, not be added to the list of "exiled" states (as is
the case in Belarus, where the regime of president Lukashenko has turned the country
into one of the most odious caricatures in the world), and not engage in illegal
arms sales, and drug trafficking. The consolidation of statehood of the South
Caucasian countries is also important for the US from the point of view of weakening
the influence of Russia in the region, all the more, as in Putin's Russia a tendency
can be observed towards the resolution of problems with is neighbors through exerting
direct pressure upon them.
d) trilateral (regional) cooperation. The US attaches great importance to such
cooperation in the region, since this will turn the South Caucasian region into
a single unit, and will create here an atmosphere of trust and cooperation. The
US is financing projects aimed at facilitating contacts and interaction between
separate social and professional groups of the three states of the region. With
the assistance of the government and various US organizations, conferences, seminars,
and round tables of leaders of NGOs and political organizations, political scientists,
journalists, and scholars from Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia are being held
in the region.
The US is also making strong efforts to facilitate Armenian-Turkish dialogue.
The initiative to include Armenia into large regional projects also comes from
the US. However, the unsettledness of the Karabakh conflict and Azerbaijan's linking
of economic cooperation in the region with the liberation of "occupied territories"
and with the demand that Armenia recognize the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan
without the fixation of the status of Nagorno Karabakh reduces all these efforts
to nothing.
e) US military cooperation with the states of the region. Immediately after
the collapse of the USSR, the US acted in this sphere in the South Caucasian region
through its NATO ally Turkey. However, after the events of September 11, 2001
the role of the South Caucasus has sharply increased in the foreign policy concept
of the Bush administration, and now the US operates actively in the region without
intermediaries. The emphasis has also changed in the Caucasian policy of the US.
Thus, if in the 90's of the last century US relations with the states of the region
were mostly economic and humanitarian, over the last year a tendency towards the
activation of military and military-technical cooperation has been observed. Thus,
in accordance with the agreements signed between the defense departments of the
US and the countries of the region, a mine clearing center was has been established
in Armenia, preparation for the creation of an effective anti-terrorist center
is underway in Georgia, and the communication system of the army of Azerbaijan
is being improved.
Russia's attitude towards the South Caucasus
Since the collapse of the USSR, Russia has been on the difficult road of comprehending
its place in the world. On the one hand, Russia's present leadership and political
elite declare their adherence to democratic values and a free market economy (a
land code has been adopted which in fact legalizes private property on land in
Russia, a single tax has been introduced on subjects engaged in economic activity,
the beginning of the implemention of military reform in the Russian Army has been
declared, etc.), and advocate rapprochement with the West and accession into World
Trade Organization. On the other hand, many things can be observed in Russia that
obviously exceed the limits of democratic principles and norms: a tendency towards
the restriction of freedoms for political opposition is being felt, at present
all the federal TV channels are completely under the government's control, and
a powerful campaign, accompanied by violence, has been launched against national
minorities.
This uncertain and unstable internal political situation is directly reflected
in the foreign policy of the country. On the one hand, realizing that it is unable
to ensure the stable development and security of CIS member-states alone, Russia
recognizes the right of the US and NATO to actively cooperate with the countries
of the region, in practically every matter, including problems of military cooperation
and regional security. Thus, the Joint Declaration signed by George W. Bush and
Vladimir Putin in May 2002, states:
"In Central Asia and the South Caucasus, we recognize our common interest
in promoting the stability, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of all the
nations of this region. The United States and Russia reject the failed model of
"Great Power" rivalry that can only increase the potential for conflict
in those regions. We will support economic and political development and respect
for human rights while we broaden our humanitarian cooperation and cooperation
on counterterrorism and counternarcotics", and further "The United States
and Russia will cooperate to resolve regional conflicts, including those in Abkhazia
and Nagorno-Karabakh, and the Transdniestrian issue in Moldova. We strongly encourage
the Presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia to exhibit flexibility and a constructive
approach to resolving the conflict concerning Nagorno-Karabakh. As two of the
Co-Chairmen of the OSCE's Minsk Group, the United States and Russia stand ready
to assist in these efforts".
On the other hand, Russia has not elaborated a clear-cut and long-term conception
of the development of its relations with CIS member-states. In a grave economic
situation, without the opportunity for serious and efficient steps in the field
of cooperation in the region, Russia is oversensitive in its perception of the
independent steps of the South Caucasian states in search of more reliable partners
in political, economic and military spheres. The Russian political elite cannot
reconcile itself to the fact that the states of the South Caucasus are not their
"younger brothers"; it is dominated by nostalgic sentiments about the
old Soviet times, when the nations of the region were directly subordinate to
Moscow.
Thus, Russia is extremely emotional in its perception of the demands of the
Georgian leadership regarding the withdrawal of Russian military bases from their
land (the Agreement on the withdrawal was signed by the leaders of Russia and
Georgia in 1999 during the Istanbul Summit of the OSCE). It reacts in precisely
the same way to the decision of the Security Council of Ukraine on beginning the
procedure of joining NATO.
At present, the components of the Russian interests in the region can me characterized
as follows:
- Russia does not wish to lose its position in the South Caucasian region, considering
it to be a "zone of vital interest", and struggles to maintain its military
presence here. As is well known, Russian military bases are quartered in Armenia
and Georgia, and in the beginning of 2002 Azerbaijan consented to a ten-year lease
of the Gabalin radar station by Russia;
- Russia attempts to determine and fix the status of the Caspian Sea with minimal
losses for itself. Let us note that the positions of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and
Russia on the issue of the division of the Caspian Sea are quite close now and
the corresponding bilateral agreements between them are already signed. The positions
of Turkmenistan and Iran sharply differ from those of the former three states,
which have resulted in complication of Iranian-Azerbaijani and Turkmenistani-Azerbaijani
relations. The discrepancy between the positions of Azerbaijan and Iran nearly
drove these countries to a military collision;
- Russia has an explicitly negative attitude toward the Baku-Ceyhan project,
finding that the oil pipeline will weaken its influence over the region. The government
of the Russian Federation prohibited the Russian oil companies from participating
in financing and implementing this project;
- Russia actively participates in the regional conflict resolution processes
(the Karabakh, Abkhazian, and South Ossetian conflicts) both within the framework
of the Minsk group of the OSCE and within other international frameworks, and
thereby maintains its influence over ongoing processes in the region. As a co-chair
of the Minsk group, Russia takes various initiatives aimed at the settlement of
the Karabakh conflict. At the same time Russia makes attempts to resolve the conflicts
in the South Caucasian region within the framework of regional formats, for example
the "Caucasian Four" (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Russia). In case
of the Abkhazian and South Ossetian conflicts, Russia has recently taken quite
serious and efficient steps in order to have an impact on events in the region.
Thus, over last two or three months, only several tens of thousands of residents
of Abkhazia and South Ossetia have received Russian citizenship, contacts between
the leaders of these autonomies and Russian officials have become more active,
and their appearances on Russian television has become more frequent.
Are Russia and the US together in their fight against terrorism?
Russia, as is well known, reacted quite efficiently and definitively to the
terrorist acts against the US on September 11. 2001. It did not confine itself
to condolences to the American people, but expressed its readiness to render assistance
by providing the intelligence data, and by consenting to the execution of active
military measures in Central Asia.
In the course of the official visit of George W. Bush to Moscow in May, the
Joint Statement on Counterterrorism Cooperation was also signed, which, in particular,
states:
"Reaffirming our commitment expressed on October 21, 2001 to fight terrorism
in all its forms wherever it may occur, we commend the efforts of the worldwide
coalition against terrorism since the tragic events of September 11, 2001. The
member nations of the coalition must continue their concerted action to deny safe
haven to terrorists; to destroy their financial, logistical, communications, and
other operational networks; and to bring terrorists to justice. We note with satisfaction
that U.S.-Russia counterterrorism cooperation is making an important contribution
to the global coalition against terrorism…We call upon all nations to implement
fully the provisions of UN Security Council resolutions, including resolutions
1368, 1373, 1377 and 1390, directed against terrorism, the Taliban, and al-Qaeda,
and to become parties at the earliest opportunity to the twelve international
antiterrorism conventions, including the Convention for the Suppression of the
Financing of Terrorism. The United States supports conclusion of the Russian-proposed
nuclear terrorism convention, and joins Russia in urging other nations to enlist
in the efforts to resolve the outstanding issues related to the text. We call
upon all nations to take steps to comply with the Financial Action Task Force
(FATF) recommendations on money laundering and terrorist financing. We shall work
to block the financial assets of named terrorists and their organizations without
delay.
We underscore the need to bring to a logical conclusion efforts to eliminate
the terrorist infrastructure in Afghanistan related to Usama Bin Laden, the al-Qaeda
organization, and the Taliban. Afghanistan should never again be a haven for terrorism.
Reaffirming our support for the important role of the UN in efforts to implement
successfully the Bonn Agreement, including the upcoming Loya Jirga, we share a
vision of a stable, independent Afghanistan at peace with its neighbors and the
rest of the world and on the road to a more prosperous future…Believing that the
sovereignty, long-term stability, prosperity, and further democratic development
of the states of Central Asia serve the strategic interests of the United States
and Russia, we pledge transparency and cooperation in our relations with the states
of Central Asia. An important step for ensuring their security is to eradicate
terrorist activities in Afghanistan once and for all and to assist in the prevention
of their reoccurrence."
These efforts by Russia have not gone unnoticed in the United States. Thus,
in June 2002 US legislators granted Russia the long-awaited status of a country
with a market economy, and a similar decision was also taken by the European Union.
Therefore, it can be said that the joint efforts of Russia and the US in the fight
against terrorism had a very positive impact on the relations between these two
countries.
The relations between Russia and the West are somewhat clouded by the Chechen
problem. The fact is that Russia would like the West to consider the Chechen guerillas
to be terrorists and approve of the military operations carried out by Moscow
in Chechnya. While acknowledging the existence of guerilla warriors in Chechnya
the Western countries, and above all the member-states of the European Union,
nevertheless do not approve of the large-scale military operations in that region,
considering them to be inappropriate and as bringing vast distress to the innocent
civilians.
In conclusion, I should like to note that in spite of the differences between
the attitudes of Russia and the United States (which become apparent above all
with regard to the methods of the implementation of anti-terrorist measures and
their views on the actions of exiled states) both countries and their leaders
regard their role in the prevention and non-proliferation of terrorism with sufficient
responsibility. This stipulates the readiness of the two countries to cooperate
in the field of counterterrorism and the desire for the rapprochement of positions
in evaluating the activity of exiled states. Thus in the course of the ongoing
57th session of the UN General assembly, despite differences in US and Russian
approaches to the timing of military strikes against Iraq and the principles of
participation of international arms inspectors in the inspection of the military
installations in Iraq, the representatives of these states are in vigorous search
of solutions for those complicated issues, and are aware of their responsibility
before the world community.
